For weeks, the prospect of the far-right National Rally party grabbing power for the first time in France's modern history was a major topic of discussion.
However, against all expectations, the left-wing New Popular Front alliance - comprising the Socialists, Greens, Communists, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's France Unbowed (LFI) movement - emerged victorious, while Marine Le Pen's National Rally fell to third place.
The outcome has left the political landscape highly uncertain. Formally, the choice of France's next prime minister belongs to President Emmanuel Macron, who is not legally bound by the election results, though political convention dictates that the head of government be selected from the ranks of the strongest political force or coalition.
The big question now is who the left-wing parties will put forward as their candidate for prime minister. During the campaign, the New Popular Front intentionally avoided running with a single figurehead, unlike the National Rally (led by Jordan Bardella) and the pro-Macron coalition (led by outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal). The reason for this was clear - the left-wing parties were unable to reach a consensus on a shared prime ministerial candidate.
Now that the New Popular Front has won, dozens of newly elected left-wing MPs are expected to throw their hats into the ring. The two main forces within the coalition, France Unbowed, and the Socialists, will wield the most influence in the upcoming negotiations, which could potentially exclude Green party leader Marine Tondelier despite her strong performance during the general election campaign.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon and his loyalists
Mélenchon's France Unbowed movement, the most radical of the four main parties within the left-wing coalition, is projected to win the most seats among the left-wing groups in the parliament.
The strength of France’s Unbowed legislature, combined with Mélenchon's strong performance in the last two presidential elections, will give the party arguments to claim that the future prime minister should come from their ranks. If France Unbowed were given the choice, Mélenchon himself would likely be the obvious pick. However, the firebrand's divisive political approach and hardline stances on issues like the economy and the war in Gaza have made him unpopular with more moderate voters. Leaders from the other members of the New Popular Front coalition were adamant during the campaign that they would not support the 72-year-old Mélenchon for the role of prime minister.
Mélenchon stated that he would not "impose" himself in a leadership position. Other potential LFI candidates have been put forward, including the movement's coordinator Manuel Bompard, its parliamentary group president Mathilde Panot, rising figure Clémence Guetté, and Eric Coquerel, the president of the finance committee in the French National Assembly.
The Most likely champion: Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Hard-left rivals unbowed to Mélenchon
The first challenge to Mélenchon and his allies' leadership could come from members of parliament (MPs) who once fought alongside the three-time presidential candidate but have since cut ties with him. Such candidates could position themselves as ideologically aligned with the dominant branch of the New Popular Front while being perceived as less divisive than Mélenchon.
Among these potential challengers is François Ruffin, a former journalist and filmmaker who is considering a run in the next presidential election. Ruffin has criticized La France Insoumise (LFI) for what he described as a lack of outreach in France's rural areas, and has called Mélenchon a "liability." Another potential challenger is Clémentine Autain, who was part of the LFI group in the past two legislative terms but has grown increasingly critical of Mélenchon. Autain said last month that she was "aware" of being "one of those who can claim to be Prime Minister in the event of victory."
These dissenting figures could attempt to present themselves as viable alternatives to Mélenchon's leadership, capitalizing on perceived ideological alignment with the New Popular Front's dominant faction while avoiding the divisiveness associated with the LFI leader.
The Most likely champion: François Ruffin
The resurrected Socialists
The French Socialist Party hit a low point in 2022 when it scored only 1.7% in the presidential election. However, the party has since embarked on an unexpected revival. This culminated in a strong showing in the 2024 European election, where the Socialists finished first among left-wing forces with nearly 14% of the vote.
The Socialists now have more members of parliament than the France Unbowed party and have strengthened their presence in the legislature. They have closed the gap with the radical left France Unbowed party led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The Socialists could potentially receive support from the Green party to prevent France Unbowed from taking control.
Possible candidates for the Socialist party leadership could come from the new generation of social democrats, including the party's current head Olivier Faure, its outgoing group president Boris Vallaud, or the lead candidate in the EU election Raphaël Glucksmann. Vallaud, who was first elected to parliament in 2017, studied alongside President Macron at France's top school for public servants and, like Macron, previously served as a deputy secretary-general in the Élysée Palace.
One former champion could also try to make a comeback - former Socialist president François Hollande is set to rejoin the National Assembly after winning a race in his old electoral district, becoming only the second president in modern French history to do so after serving as head of state.
The most likely champion: Boris Vallaud
The non-partisan options
One way of avoiding disagreements between parties could be for the left to pick someone from outside the political scene.
Social-democratic Member of the European Parliament (MEP) Glucksmann put this option on the table last month by putting forward Laurent Berger, the former leader of the reformist French Democratic Confederation of Labour (CFDT) union. Berger is also recognized, both on the left and the right, for his capacity to create consensus and bridge gaps. His moderate approach could, however, be a non-starter for Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The most likely champion: Laurent Berger
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