According to a think tank, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has recently conducted an unexpected inspection to assess the readiness of his military for deploying tactical nuclear weapons. This move is believed to be aimed at supporting Russia's efforts to pressure the West against providing further assistance to Ukraine. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank based in Washington D.C., shared its analysis of the Ukrainian conflict and highlighted Lukashenko's actions.
Lukashenko has a strong alliance with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Belarus, a former Soviet Union republic, has had a close relationship with Russia since the Russian leader initiated a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In January, the Belarusian president revealed that Russian nuclear weapons, under Moscow's control, had been brought into Belarus. Lukashenko recently stated that "several dozen" tactical nuclear weapons from Russia had been stationed in his country. The exercises will include the use of these weapons.
The ISW mentioned that the surprise nuclear readiness inspection is probably part of the Kremlin's intensified reflexive control campaign aimed at influencing Western decision-making. The think tank also noted that it is probably intended to strengthen the Kremlin's push to discourage the West from offering more military support to Ukraine, highlighting the timing of the announcement.
Yesterday, Putin instructed tactical nuclear weapons exercises in reaction to what his defense ministry labeled as provocative remarks and warnings from the West. The Kremlin criticized French President Emmanuel Macron last week for reiterating that he wouldn't exclude the possibility of sending Western troops to Ukraine, and U.K. Foreign Minister David Cameron for stating that Ukraine has the authority to utilize British arms for attacks on Russian territory.
Belarus' Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin mentioned that the drills will cover all aspects, including planning, preparation, and execution of strikes using tactical nuclear weapons. The exercises will feature a squadron of Su-25 aircraft and an Iskander missile division.
Even though Belarus has not officially entered the conflict in Ukraine, Russian troops have been conducting exercises on Belarusian soil even before the war started. The country was utilized by Russia as a launching pad for its invasion of Ukraine.
The ISW pointed out that Lukashenko restated the usual stance on Belarusian doctrine regarding the deterrent use of nuclear weapons and his wish to avoid getting involved in the war against Ukraine.
According to the think tank, ISW maintains its assessment that both Russia and Belarus have no intention of escalating nuclear tensions and the likelihood of them using nuclear weapons remains low.
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