In a nail-biting face-off, a critical moment of reality looms large, posing a grave risk to the EU, and potentially igniting another Eurozone crisis. This intense situation could also disrupt Sir Keir Starmer's immigration and trade strategies, just as he begins his tenure as prime minister. Within a fortnight, France will either witness the rise of an extremely conservative populist government with control over nuclear power, embrace a fiercely anti-capitalist, anti-Western, far-left coalition, or demonstrate its inherent ungovernability.
The core is crumbling. President Emmanuel Macron might be pushed to step down in a worst-case scenario. The chaos could cast a shadow over the Olympics. I worry for the France I hold dear, but most of all, I am infuriated by the years of incompetence from an elitist, pseudo-meritocratic, overly rational ruling class that despises classical liberalism and looks down on conservative principles, pushing the nation towards an undesirable crossroads.
The repercussions of the election will be explosive. Macron has left behind a 5.5% GDP budget deficit and a 110% GDP national debt. These have already resulted in a downgrade of the country's credit rating and an EU investigation for violating the stability and growth pact. French bond yields are rising in anticipation of significant fiscal relaxation regardless of who wins the election, potentially leading to a severe financial crisis.
The Front Populaire, a sorry coalition of the far Left, socialists, communists, greens, and a bunch of oddballs, is pushing for a whopping €50 billion annual tax hike and an additional €106 billion in yearly spending. They're advocating for an increase in income tax, bringing back a punishing wealth tax, limiting inheritances, boosting the minimum wage to €1,600 after taxes per month, giving public sector employees a 10% pay raise, scrapping the few positive reforms implemented by Macron, and reducing the retirement age to 62.
The proposed policies in the manifesto are quite extreme. They include implementing gender self-ID, loosening immigration regulations, imposing an embargo on arms sales to Israel, and supporting controversial international court cases against Israel. Not only are these ideas overly woke and hostile towards Israel, but they would also have a detrimental impact on France's economy. Surprisingly, despite these radical proposals, the Front Populaire party is polling at 25 percent.
However, unless we end up with a hung parliament, it is still more likely for a Rassemblement National government led by Jordan Bardella, Marine Le Pen's deputy, to come into power. If that were to happen, it would undoubtedly be a massive shock to the global community. The elites and influential figures would be appalled, and various segments of French society, including those in the banlieues and unions, would be furious.
There is a possibility of widespread chaos, violence, theft, and protests, resulting in the most dangerous confrontation since 1968. Some officials would refuse to cooperate. The financial markets would go into a panic. The IMF, World Bank, and White House would strongly oppose Bardella's tax cuts that defy the net zero target. He plans to reduce the VAT on carbon-intensive gas, energy, and fuel from 20 percent to 5.5 percent, which would save €17-€24 billion annually.
Additionally, he aims to decrease contributions to the EU by €2 billion, both of which are popular decisions. However, these moves would increase the deficit, and unlike Liz Truss's pro-business agenda, there would be no long-term positive growth story as the RN has a semi-socialist approach.
The European Central Bank might decide against purchasing French bonds to stabilize the markets. The goal would be to embarrass Bardella and put an end to Le Pen's presidential ambitions, but the EU could face more difficulties in challenging France compared to dealing with Italy and Greece. France plays a crucial role in the EU system and will receive support from Italy's Giorgia Meloni. Bardella and his anti-establishment allies could retaliate effectively, threatening to withhold EU funding or create chaos in other ways if their demands are not met.
Bardella aims to deport foreign criminals, eliminate benefits for parents of delinquents, and stop the practice of granting French citizenship to those born to foreign parents in France. However, the truth is that the RN's broader agenda clashes with EU membership. Ultimately, they seek an immigration referendum that would drastically reduce numbers and reject most post-war regulations on the matter. Le Pen and Bardella no longer openly advocate for leaving the EU, as the middle class fears a devaluation of their savings if the franc were to be reintroduced. Nonetheless, if Bardella manages to avoid failure in the initial weeks, he will gradually subtly initiate a process of Frexit.
Version 1: British Brexiteers need to keep in mind that the RN used to have a different name, the Front National. Its first treasurer was Pierre Bousquet, a former Rottenführer in the Waffen-SS Charlemagne Division. Jean-Marie Le Pen, who led the party from 1972 to 2011, controversially referred to the Nazi gas chambers as a “detail”. The party had a history of racism, anti-Semitism, and Vichyite beliefs, attracting skinheads and thugs. It was against Gaullism and the free market and focused on downplaying Philippe Pétain’s collaboration with the Nazis during France’s darkest hour.
The party has undergone significant changes since then, as acknowledged even by Macron; we can only hope that this transformation is genuine. Marine Le Pen, after purging her father Le Pen Sr, has distanced herself from Pétainisme, now supporting Israel and speaking out against anti-Semitism. She has also shifted her stance on Putin. Eric Zemmour’s new party has emerged as a more right-wing alternative to the RN. Bardella, the grandson of Italian and Algerian immigrants, is also part of this evolving political landscape.
Men and women are now equally likely to vote RN, and 26 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds backed them in the European elections. Serge Klarsfeld, a Holocaust survivor and France’s pre-eminent Nazi hunter – who tracked down Klaus Barbie, the Gestapo butcher of Lyon, in Peru – now says that he will back the RN in the second round because it has changed. He is more afraid of the far Left. We will soon find out whether he is right, or whether he has been duped.
In the short term, chaos in France will be good for Starmer’s centrist credentials, though high-tax, post-non-dom London won’t gain from any exodus of French millionaires. In the longer term, an RN victory would be a nightmare for Starmer, exposing Labour’s naive love of all things European as nonsensical and toxifying any rapprochement.
No agreement will be reached on Channel crossings, with the number of migrants increasing as they escape a crackdown in France and the UK appearing more lenient. Starmer's pro-European Convention stance may seem out of touch as the continent leans towards the Right, giving confidence to the Tory or Reform opposition. The political landscape is changing, not only in France. More Images Click Me
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