Putin’s recent visit to Beijing highlights the deepening dynamics of a new Cold War.
Hugo von Essen and Andreas Umland, analysts at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) in the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, note that over the years, Beijing and Moscow have gradually formed an anti-American and anti-liberal global alliance. Their shared goal is to challenge the current world order, particularly concerning Ukraine and Taiwan.
China's support is crucial for Russia, potentially sustaining its economy and its ongoing conflict in Ukraine for many years. However, China’s interests diverge from Russia’s in certain areas. Increased Chinese backing for Russia carries risks, especially if the West imposes sanctions on Chinese banks and companies. This caution was reflected in the decline of Chinese exports to Russia in March and April 2023 compared to the previous year, partly due to payment difficulties faced by Russian importers under U.S. pressure.
Despite these challenges, Beijing’s long-term support for Russia indicates a strategic interest in maintaining the confrontation, which ties up Western resources and diverts U.S. attention from China’s activities elsewhere. As Chinese companies replace Russia’s former Western partners, Russia’s dependency on China grows, enhancing China’s relative power.
China benefits economically from this relationship, importing discounted Russian raw materials and flooding the Russian market with consumer goods. Additionally, Moscow has been gradually transferring more of its military technologies to China. Although not a vassal state, Russia must meet Beijing’s increasing demands, whether they involve energy price discounts, Chinese influence in Central Asia, or support for Chinese ambitions in Southern and Eastern Asia.
Beijing prefers a prolonged conflict in Ukraine, avoiding a decisive Russian victory that could alienate the West, or a defeat that might destabilize Putin’s regime and disrupt Chinese access to cheap energy, Russian markets, the Arctic, and military technology.
China’s calls for peace should be viewed skeptically. Since 2014, Beijing’s purported neutrality has masked significant economic assistance to Moscow, crucial for Russia’s aggressive actions in Europe. Moreover, Beijing has supported Russia’s narratives, including its "legitimate security concerns" and misinterpretations of "indivisible security," blaming the West for the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
Despite the potential economic repercussions and strained relations with the West, China has shown remarkable support for Russia. This alliance, which includes rogue states like Iran, North Korea, and Syria, projects an image of a united anti-democratic front. However, cracks are evident, such as Russia’s growing ties with North Korea, which complicate Beijing’s control over Pyongyang.
As Matthew Kroenig discusses in "The Return of Great Power Rivalry," autocratic regimes often face volatility in their foreign and domestic affairs. Open political systems with the rule of law and pluralism are more effective both domestically and in handling international conflicts.
In this context, the West must remain resolute and united, providing Ukraine with comprehensive support. A Ukrainian victory, aided by Western support and restoring its territory, is the best strategy to contain the revisionist ambitions of Russia and China.
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