Putin's most recent trip to Beijing indicates further evidence of a developing new Cold War.
Hugo von Essen and Andreas Umland, analysts at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS) at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, argue that Beijing and Moscow have gradually forged an anti-American and anti-liberal alliance. This partnership is driven by their shared ambitions to alter the status of Ukraine and Taiwan and to challenge the current world order.
China’s Economic Support for Russia: China may continue, and potentially increase, its support for Russia, helping sustain the Russian economy and its war effort in Ukraine for many years. While Beijing's interests do differ from Moscow's, greater Chinese support comes with risks, particularly if the West extends sanctions against Chinese banks and companies. For instance, Chinese exports to Russia dropped in March and April 2023 compared to the same months in 2022, reflecting Beijing's caution and the payment difficulties faced by Russian importers under increasing U.S. pressure.
Beijing’s Strategic Calculations: Despite these economic concerns, Beijing's long-term support for Russia suggests a strategic interest in prolonging the conflict. This diversion of Western resources and attention from other global areas benefits China economically and geopolitically. China’s influence over Russia continues to grow as Chinese companies replace Russia’s former Western trade partners.
China’s Growing Power: As the war persists, China’s relative power over Russia increases. While Russia's arms industry sees artificial growth, China’s economy, though also troubled, continues to expand. China benefits from discounted Russian raw materials and floods Russia with consumer goods. Moreover, Russia increasingly transfers its latest military technologies to China, further deepening this dependency.
Complex Alliance Dynamics: Russia, while not a vassal state, must comply with China’s increasing demands, including energy price discounts, Chinese presence in Central Asia, and support for China’s regional ambitions. Beijing seeks a balance where Russia neither completely wins nor loses in Ukraine. A Russian victory with Chinese backing could strengthen Moscow but alienate the West from Beijing. Conversely, a Russian defeat could destabilize Putin’s regime, risking political upheaval that might limit China’s access to cheap energy, Russian markets, the Arctic, and military-technological secrets, while also losing a key partner in its strategic rivalry with the U.S.
The relationship between China and Russia is thus marked by mutual benefits and strategic maneuvering, as they challenge the Western-dominated global order.
As Russia's brutal war against Ukraine continues, Beijing has increasingly supported Moscow’s narratives, including claims of "legitimate security concerns" and misinterpretations of "indivisible security." This has involved blaming the West for the war in Ukraine and for tensions in the Indo-Pacific region.
Beijing's strong support for Moscow is notable, given the potential negative impact on its relations with Western countries and the risk of a trade war with the United States. Currently, Beijing and Moscow appear as a united, formidable, and stable anti-democratic, anti-American coalition, which also includes rogue states like Iran, North Korea, and Syria. However, there are signs of potential cracks in this alliance. For instance, Russia's growing relationship with North Korea could complicate matters for Beijing, which has long struggled to manage its relationship with Pyongyang.
Moreover, as highlighted in Matthew Kroenig's book "The Return of Great Power Rivalry," autocratic regimes are often unstable in their foreign and domestic policies. Historical evidence shows that open political systems with the rule of law and pluralism are more effective in managing internal affairs and international conflicts.
Given this context, the West must remain united and resolute. This involves providing comprehensive support to Ukraine to secure victory on the battlefield and restore its territorial integrity. Such a victory, achieved with Western support, would be the most effective way to counter the revisionist ambitions of Russia and China.
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