In the past two days following his conviction in his Manhattan criminal trial, former President Donald Trump has faced setbacks in three different polls.
After a thorough examination, a New York jury declared Trump, the expected Republican Party nominee for the presidency, guilty of 34 charges of falsifying business records. These charges were related to a payment made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels by Trump's former lawyer and fixer, Michael Cohen, just before the 2016 presidential election. Daniels claims to have had a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006, an allegation that he vehemently denies. Despite the guilty verdict, Trump continues to assert his innocence, asserting that the case is driven by political motives. His legal team intends to challenge the verdict and pursue an appeal if necessary.
In a YouGov snap poll conducted immediately after the verdict was announced, half of the 3,040 U.S. adults surveyed believed that Trump was guilty, while 30 percent believed he was not guilty. Another 19 percent were unsure. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percent.
When examining the results based on party affiliation, 15 percent of Republicans think Trump is guilty, while 64 percent do not. Among independents, 48 percent believe Trump is guilty, while 25 percent do not. Among Democrats, a significant majority of 86 percent believe Trump is guilty, while only 5 percent do not. A total of 831 Republicans, 1,114 independents, and 1,113 Democrats were surveyed. The margin of error for these subgroups is unclear.
A Morning Consult poll conducted on Friday revealed that 54 percent of registered voters approve of the jury's verdict, while 39 percent disapprove. Breaking it down by party lines, 18 percent of Republicans approve of the verdict, while 74 percent disapprove. Among independents, 52 percent approve, while 33 percent disapprove. Among Democrats, a significant majority of 88 percent approve, while only 8 percent disapprove. The poll surveyed 2,220 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. A total of 838 Republicans, 484 independents, and 898 Democrats were surveyed. The margins of error for the subgroups are unclear.
Out of the 2,220 registered voters surveyed, 51 percent stated that Trump should end his presidential campaign, while 43 percent said he should not. The majority of Republicans surveyed (79 percent) believe Trump should not drop out, while 15 percent said he should. On the other hand, 87 percent of Trump supporters do not want him to end his campaign, while 8 percent do. A total of 977 Trump supporters were surveyed.
According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted over two days, it was found that a significant portion of Republicans and independents have altered their stance on supporting Trump due to the jury's ruling. Out of the Republicans surveyed, 5 percent stated that they are now much less likely to vote for Trump, whereas 30 percent mentioned that the verdict has made them much more likely to support him. Among independents, 21 percent claimed to be much less likely to vote for Trump, while 13 percent expressed an increased likelihood of supporting him. However, the majority of Republicans (55 percent), independents (58 percent), and Democrats (58 percent) stated that the verdict did not impact their decision on whether or not to vote for the former president.
The poll included a subsample of 828 U.S. adults who identified as Republicans, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent. Additionally, 708 independents were surveyed, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percent, and 774 Democrats were included, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percent.
In an email to Newsweek on Saturday, Steven Cheung, the campaign communications director for President Trump, stated that there has been a significant surge in support for the President. This surge has resulted in higher poll numbers and record-breaking fundraising, with nearly $53 million raised in just 24 hours. Cheung also referenced a recent poll conducted by Daily Mail/J.L. Partners, which indicated that Trump's approval rating had increased by 6 percentage points compared to those who disapproved.
According to the poll, 22 percent of likely voters had a more positive view of Trump following his guilty verdict, while 16 percent had a more negative view. Additionally, 32 percent of likely voters who already held a negative view of Trump did not change their opinion, while 27 percent of likely voters who already had a positive view of Trump also did not change. The poll surveyed 403 likely voters from Thursday to Friday and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
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