In recent weeks, Russia has faced a series of political, financial, and judicial setbacks over its war in Ukraine, even as the fighting on the eastern front remains difficult for Ukraine.
Diplomatically, Russia has suffered blows. On June 19, President Vladimir Putin signed a "comprehensive strategic treaty" with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, which South Korea condemned as a defensive alliance. This led South Korea to suggest it may reconsider its policy of not directly supplying weapons to Ukraine, stating that the type of weapons provided would depend on Russia's cooperation with North Korea. Putin warned that it would be a "grave mistake" if South Korea changed its policy.
Russia has also faced judicial repercussions. The International Criminal Court at The Hague issued arrest warrants on June 27 for former Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Military Staff Valery Gerasimov. The court cited "reasonable grounds to believe" that they bore responsibility for attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, stating the expected civilian harm was "clearly excessive" to any military advantage.
On the same day, the European Court of Human Rights found Russia in violation of several fundamental human rights in occupied Ukrainian territories. These include abductions, illegal detentions, torture, and forced Russian citizenship, among other violations.
Despite these setbacks for Russia, the battle on the eastern front in Ukraine remains difficult for Ukraine's forces. While Russia has faced political, financial, and judicial blows, the fighting in eastern Ukraine continues to be a challenge for Ukraine.
Russia faced challenges in its diplomatic relations with the European Union. On Tuesday, the EU initiated accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, which were seen as setbacks for Russia. Additionally, the EU imposed a 14th round of sanctions against Russia, prohibiting any EU organization involved in shaping public opinion, such as political parties, think tanks, and media, from accepting Russian funds or indirect support.
Furthermore, the EU officially released €1.4bn ($1.5bn) from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. The majority of this amount, specifically 90%, is designated for military procurements.
Russia’s war effort stuck
In the meantime, Russia has encountered difficulties in making substantial progress in Ukraine's territory, even though they initiated a fresh offensive in the northern Kharkiv region on May 10. This maneuver aimed to divert Ukrainian troops from the eastern front but presented its own set of challenges.
Consequently, this incursion led to a series of issues, ultimately prompting the United States and Germany to join Britain and France in granting permission for Ukraine to employ their weaponry on Russian soil.
Ukraine's frustration has grown due to its inability to target the air bases that Russian bombers, equipped with glide bombs, operate from. According to two Ukrainian officials, the United States has imposed a range limit of 100km (62 miles) on Ukrainian strikes against targets on Russian soil.
In response, Pentagon spokesman Major Charlie Dietz stated that if Russia launches or is on the verge of launching an attack from its territory into Ukraine, Ukraine has the right to retaliate against the forces attacking it from across the border. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan echoed a similar sentiment, emphasizing that Ukraine should be allowed to defend itself against cross-border aggression.
Since April, Ukraine has been utilizing US-supplied Army Tactical Missiles (ATACMs) with a range of 300km.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, summarized US policy by stating that Ukrainian forces can employ High Mobility Army Rocket Systems (HIIMARS) armed with Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) to target Russian forces preparing for or actively engaging in attacks on Ukraine. However, there may be limitations on striking all legitimate Russian military targets within range of Ukrainian HIMARS using GMLRS in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts.
Due to restrictions on Western weapons and their high cost, Ukraine has adopted a new policy of developing and manufacturing its weapons as much as possible. In the past week, Ukraine has effectively targeted Russian military and oil facilities using these domestically-produced weapons, resulting in significant damage.
On June 20, 2024, Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reported that they had successfully struck the Tambovnefteprodukt fuel and lubricants warehouse in the Tambov region and the Lukoil-Yugnefteprodukt Enemska oil depot in the Adygea Republic.
That same night, Ukraine launched a large-scale aerial drone attack on Russian fuel and military facilities, successfully striking multiple targets in occupied Crimea and southern Russia. Ukraine's general staff stated that their forces and the SBU had struck oil refineries in Afipsky, Ilysky, Krasnodar, and Astrakhan. They also reported that Ukrainian drones had hit radio intelligence centers in Zagarbnikiv in Russia's Bryansk region and occupied Crimea, as well as Shahed-2 and Geran drone storage and training facilities in the Krasnodar region.
Further footage emerged on June 22 showing secondary explosions at what Ukraine claimed was an air defense training center in Yeysk, Krasnodar Krai. Then on June 23, the Ukrainian general staff announced their air force had struck a motorized rifle regiment command post in Nekhoteevka, Belgorod region, causing secondary explosions.
On June 24, footage showed smoke and fire coming from an ammunition depot in Olkovatka, Voronezh region. Residents reported that two drones had struck the facility, triggering secondary explosions.
Also on Sunday, Ukraine’s national guard confirmed the destruction of two Pantsir-1 air defense systems, south and west of Belgorod city, which also killed their crews.
Ukraine’s military intelligence chief told The Trudy Rubin that the Russian people would suffer no psychological consequences from waging a war on Ukrainian soil unless they felt the danger of a strike on their own. “I have been advocating this since the very first days of the war, saying openly that so long as the war is contained on our territory, it will not affect Russia,” Kiril Budanov said. “Russia has started to feel it.”
Budanov estimated that “no Armageddon will emerge” on the eastern front, where Russia almost daily manages to creep forward a few yards, though he admitted the situation there was difficult and would likely remain so for the foreseeable future.
Budanov was noncommittal, however, when asked whether Ukrainian troops would succeed in holding a key town on the eastern front where Russia has concentrated much of its war effort. Chasiv Yar sits on high ground, protecting a plain to its west that leads to the main industrial cities of Donetsk. Asked if Ukraine would continue to hold the town, Budanov said, “I will refrain from response.”
Ukraine’s allies moved to shore up its air defenses in the past week. Romania and the Netherlands each said they were providing a Patriot air defense system, and the US said it would send all newly produced ammunition for Patriot systems to Ukraine, forcing other recipients to wait. “We’re going to reprioritize the deliveries of these exports so that those missiles rolling off the production line will now be provided to Ukraine,” the White House’s Kirby said.
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