The collapse of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, one of the most significant arms control agreements of the Cold War era, has set the stage for a potential new arms race between the world's two largest nuclear powers, Russia and the United States.
On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will resume the production of intermediate and shorter-range nuclear-capable missiles and consider their deployment, in response to the United States bringing similar weapons to Europe and Asia. This move effectively marks the end of the INF Treaty, which was signed in 1987 by Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan, and had previously eliminated an entire category of nuclear weapons and reduced the nuclear arsenals of the superpowers.
The United States, under former President Donald Trump, formally withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2019, citing alleged Russian violations of the accord, which Moscow has repeatedly denied and dismissed as a pretext. In response, Russia imposed a moratorium on the development of missiles previously banned by the INF treaty, which had restricted ground-based ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges of 500 km to 5,500 km.
However, Putin has now stated that the U.S. has resumed the production and deployment of such weapons, including in Denmark and the Philippines. "We need to respond to this and make decisions about what we will have to do in this direction next," Putin said, suggesting that Russia may need to start manufacturing these strike systems and then decide on their deployment.
The collapse of the arms control framework has raised fears of a new arms race, with both Russia and the United States expressing regret over the disintegration of the tangle of treaties that had sought to slow the Cold War arms race and reduce the risk of nuclear war. Trump had cited concerns about China's intermediate-range missile arsenal as one of the reasons for withdrawing from the INF Treaty.
Putin has warned that the U.S. withdrawal could trigger a new arms race, and has also suggested that Russia could deploy conventional missiles capable of striking the U.S. and its allies if they allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with long-range Western weapons.
The collapse of the INF Treaty marks the end of an era of arms control efforts and raises the specter of a renewed nuclear rivalry between the world's two largest nuclear powers, with the potential for China to become a key player in this new strategic landscape.
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