Vice President Kamala Harris is in a prime position to take over the presidential race if President Joe Biden decides to step down. She has a significant advantage over other potential Democratic candidates such as California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. Harris has the advantage of being part of a winning presidential ticket with Biden, has built up years of support from key party demographics, and would probably have access to a substantial campaign fund from Biden's reelection.
She’d be Biden’s most natural endorsement
The incumbent president easily secured the Democratic nomination, and party rules prevent him from simply transferring the delegates he amassed during the upcoming Democratic National Convention. However, several delegates have already suggested they would be loyal to Vice President Kamala Harris.
Choosing Harris as the running mate could help limit potential chaos and avoid floor fights that could damage the eventual Democratic nominee in their general election campaign against Republican Donald Trump.
"Harris makes the most sense to carry on the Biden legacy," said Andrew Feldman, a Democratic strategist who works closely with various state parties. Feldman noted that this was a hypothetical scenario, as the president has insisted he will not step down.
Feldman added that the current administration's agenda "has been tremendously popular in terms of the issues that they've championed" and that the president and Vice President Harris have "been doing that in partnership."
Antjuan Seawright, a South Carolina-based Democratic strategist, pointed out that voters four years ago elected the 78-year-old Biden to the Oval Office, knowing that Harris would be next in line. He also noted that Biden fended off primary challengers this year at age 81, with Democratic voters aware that Harris remained his second-in-command.
"Democrats have voted for Joe Biden with Kamala Harris," Seawright said.
Challenging Harris as Biden’s alternative is risky
Kamala Harris is the first woman to serve as vice president, as well as the first Black woman and person of South Asian descent to hold that office. African Americans are a critical and loyal bloc of supporters for the Democratic Party.
Bypassing Harris, a historic and groundbreaking figure, in favor of another candidate - even a popular one from an important swing state - would be extremely difficult for the Democratic Party. Being seen as trying to sideline someone who has broken major gender and racial barriers could permanently mark a challenger as disloyal in future Democratic primaries.
Glynda Carr, who leads the Higher Heights political action committee that supports Black female candidates nationwide, said that suggestions of Harris potentially being passed over for another top Democrat if President Biden were absent show "just how much Black women are oftentimes overlooked."
"You want Black women to organize our houses, our blocks, our churches, our sororities?" Carr asked. "Then we've got to stand by our leadership."
Democratic Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett of Texas emphasized that it is "impossible to understate" the significance of Harris holding national office as a Black woman.
Democrats with national ambitions may not want a rushed campaign
Since Biden's performance in the debate, Democrats have mentioned several potential top alternatives who could run in the president's place. In addition to Governors Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Gavin Newsom of California, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker have also been the subject of speculation. However, all of these individuals have stated that they will continue to support Biden.
According to numerous interviews with Democratic operatives, pollsters, and elected officials, there has not been the kind of intense political jockeying for support that would be necessary if Biden were to step aside. Any such discussions that have occurred have been quiet and preliminary, and would almost certainly become public if Biden were to leave the race, making further behind-the-scenes efforts more difficult.
As one expert, David Feldman, noted: "Everyone would rather be a starter than a pinch hitter." For example, Democratic fundraiser Barry Goodman, who was a finance co-chairman for both of Whitmer's statewide campaigns, stated that he was unaware of any coordinated effort on the governor's part to build support for a potential presidential run.
Overall, the passage suggests that while alternative Democratic candidates have been mentioned, there is little evidence of active efforts to position themselves as replacements for Biden at this time.
Harris will have money to start
Another factor that could make transitioning from Biden to Harris easier is the campaign finances. Harris, being the official running mate, has access to the $91 million in cash that the president's campaign has raised - a number that increases to $240 million when factoring in allied Democratic organizations - in ways that other Democratic options probably cannot.
For his part, Trump is already trying to rally donors by suggesting that Democrats might replace Biden with Harris. The former president sent fundraising emails on Monday with titles like "Biden's dropping out" and "President Kamala Harris?".
Her legal background might resonate more than it once did
At 59, the vice president is 22 years younger than President Biden. A former prosecutor, she has a strong legal background and can deliver forceful arguments in a debate, as Biden himself experienced during the 2020 Democratic primary when Harris challenged him on his past opposition to school busing as a means of desegregation.
The vice president's legal expertise may align more closely with the current priorities of the Democratic Party, which has shifted towards more centrist positions on criminal justice and law enforcement in recent years. This shift occurred after the nationwide protests against racial injustice in 2020, which helped galvanize the "defund the police" movement.
Biden has seen his approval rating decline significantly among Black Americans, an issue the vice president would hope to address before the November elections. However, Biden has long struggled with low approval ratings overall, and the vice president's favorability ratings are not much higher.
Approximately 39% of U.S. adults have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of the vice president, which is similar to Biden's 40% favorability. An AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll conducted in June found that slightly fewer adults have an unfavorable view of Harris, at 49%, compared to Biden's 57%.
Harris enjoys a 62% favorability rating among Black Americans, but this drops to 37% for Hispanic Americans and 35% for white Americans. These figures are comparable to Biden's, though the vice president may have more opportunities to shape public perceptions. Around 12% of U.S. adults said they are not familiar enough with Harris to form an opinion, while almost everyone has an opinion on Biden.
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