French election gridlock means yet more uncertainty for Europe

 The French election result provided mixed feelings for the EU. The relief stemmed from the fact that the far-right National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, did not secure a majority in the French parliament. This outcome reassured many in Brussels, as a far-right majority could have posed significant challenges to the EU's cohesion and policies.

 

Instead, the National Rally finished third, trailing behind the left-wing alliance and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party. This result was a positive sign for mainstream pro-European forces, as it maintained a level of stability and continuity in France's approach to EU matters. However, the strong showing of the far-right still indicates a substantial portion of the French electorate supports their platform, which could be concerning for the future of EU politics.

 

The recent parliamentary elections in France have thrown the country into political disarray, as no party has secured enough seats to form a majority government. This outcome presents a significant challenge for President Emmanuel Macron, who has been a prominent figure on the European stage, pushing for a robust EU trade agenda, industrial defense, competitiveness, and strategic autonomy.

 

With a fragmented French parliament, any new government is expected to prioritize domestic issues over foreign policy. This internal instability could weaken France's influence in the EU and on the global stage. Adding to the uncertainty is the upcoming 2027 presidential election, where the traditional alliance of mainstream and leftist parties to block the far-right might not occur again, potentially leading to a far-right president.

 

Manfred Weber, president of the European People's Party, voiced his concerns about the situation, warning of the rise of anti-EU rhetoric from both the far left and far right. He stressed the need for a strong democratic force, like Les Républicains, to offer a credible alternative and stabilize France.

 

A senior French official pointed out the financial challenges ahead, particularly the difficulty in passing the finance bill amidst the current political turmoil, which could lead to the EU triggering an excessive deficit procedure against France. This political paralysis in France, combined with internal struggles in Germany, poses a significant threat to the EU's stability and effectiveness.

 

German problems

The political landscape in Europe is currently marked by significant internal challenges in both France and Germany, traditionally the driving forces of the EU. These challenges are hampering their ability to provide strong leadership at a crucial time for the Union.

• Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government has been weakened by poor results in the recent European elections, where his coalition parties secured only 31% of the vote. Although Scholz managed to secure a draft budget deal for 2025, averting an immediate crisis, his coalition remains fragile. This internal focus and instability limit his capacity to lead on the European stage.
• France: President Emmanuel Macron is also facing considerable domestic difficulties. Despite his efforts to push for a more ambitious and cohesive European Union, his weakened position at home necessitates forming a government, diverting his attention from European leadership. This distraction hinders his ability to advocate for his vision of a stronger geopolitical and geostrategic Europe.
• Leadership Void: With France and Germany preoccupied with their internal issues, a leadership vacuum has emerged within the EU. Mujtaba Rahman of the Eurasia Group notes that neither Scholz nor Macron can effectively lead Europe at this time. Furthermore, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is also facing significant domestic challenges, preventing him from stepping into a leadership role.
• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: Her leadership strength depends heavily on support from the most influential EU member states. With both France and Germany weakened, von der Leyen’s position is less stable, complicating her efforts to secure a second term and effectively lead the European Commission.

 

In conclusion, the internal political struggles in France and Germany are significantly undermining the EU’s ability to provide strong, cohesive leadership. This situation raises concerns about the future direction and stability of the Union, given the absence of strong leadership from its key member states.

 

Policy infighting

The current political situation in France, marked by policy infighting and potential stagnation due to a hung parliament, poses several challenges to the EU's ambitions over the next five years:

1. Stalled Economic Reforms: Economic and fiscal reforms in France are likely to be delayed, frustrating the European Commission and more fiscally conservative EU member states. This stagnation could negatively impact the broader economic stability of the EU.
2. Uncertainty in EU Policy Making: The instability in France might lead to uncertainty in the Council of the EU, where critical policy decisions are negotiated. France's ability to effectively advocate for key initiatives, such as the European Capital Markets Union aimed at boosting savings and investments across the EU, could be weakened.
3. Diplomatic Resilience: Despite the political challenges, France’s diplomatic machinery remains robust. The checks and balances within the French system, including the Senate, President Macron, and the French administration, can still mitigate radical demands from the National Assembly and maintain a consistent stance on European issues.
4. Mitigated Far-Right Impact: Brussels is relieved that the far-right did not win, as their victory could have affected EU policies on Ukraine and migration, potentially aligning France with Hungary's Viktor Orbán. The current situation, though unstable, is seen as preferable for maintaining a pro-European majority in the French parliament.
5. The shift in Policy Priorities: The new French government’s internal dynamics may shift policy priorities to the left, resulting in less clarity and coherence in its European agenda. Nevertheless, a general pro-European stance is expected to persist, ensuring continuity in supporting most European policy files.

 

In summary, while France's political situation presents challenges, the EU can still rely on France's diplomatic strength and pro-European majority to advance key initiatives, though with potential delays and complications.