Throughout the summer, Russian forces have been advancing steadily but surely through the weak defenses of Ukraine, prompting Western nations to advocate for enhanced weaponry and tactics to support Kyiv.
Consequently, President Vladimir Putin has issued new warnings of potential retaliation against the West, whether through direct or indirect means.
The efforts by Western countries to counter the ongoing offensive and the anticipated reaction from the Kremlin may result in a perilous escalation as the conflict enters its third year, heightening the risk of a direct clash between Russia and NATO.
Russia’s probing offensive
Russia has taken advantage of its edge in firepower amid delays in U.S. aid to scale up attacks in several areas along the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front. Relatively small Russian units are probing Ukrainian defenses for weak spots, potentially setting the stage for a more ambitious push.
Russia's offensive near Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, which began in May and worried Kyiv's Western allies has apparently lost momentum after the Ukrainian army bolstered its forces in the area by redeploying troops from other sectors. Meanwhile, Russia has made incremental but steady advances in the Donetsk region, including around the strategic hilltop town of Chasiv Yar, a gateway to parts of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control. Analysts say the fall of Chasiv Yar would threaten the key military hubs of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that Moscow is not seeking quick gains and will stick to advancing slowly. Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute said that by stretching Ukrainian forces along a wide front, Russia is overcoming the limitations of its military that lacks the size and training for a major offensive. The breadth of the strikes has forced Ukraine to spread out its artillery, "expending munitions to break up successive Russian attacks," he said in an analysis. "Russia's aim is not to achieve a grand breakthrough but to convince Ukraine that it can keep up an inexorable advance, kilometer by kilometer, along the front."
Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment said Russia's apparent goal is to maintain pressure and try to stretch out Ukraine's forces. He noted that even though Ukraine managed to stabilize the front line, it had to use reserves intended to be deployed elsewhere. "It will take more and more time actually to regenerate Ukraine's combat strength because of that," he said in a recent podcast.
Moscow has also stepped up airstrikes on Ukraine's energy facilities and other vital infrastructure with waves of missiles and drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the country had lost about 80% of its thermal power and one-third of its hydroelectric power in the strikes. "This will be a growing problem when we talk about the future of Ukraine's economic viability," Kofman said. Watling said the shortage of air defenses is giving Ukraine a difficult choice between concentrating them to safeguard critical infrastructure or protecting troops on the front.
The West responds, and the Kremlin counters
Washington and some NATO allies have responded to the Russian offensive by allowing Kyiv to use Western weapons for limited strikes inside Russia. The U.S. has permitted Ukraine to use American weapons against military targets in Russia near Kharkiv and elsewhere near the border but has so far not authorized strikes deeper into Russian territory, much to Kyiv's disappointment.
French President Emmanuel Macron and some other Western officials argue that Ukraine has the right to use its equipment to attack military assets anywhere in Russia. There has also been discussion by Macron and the leaders of NATO's Baltic members - though not the U.S. - of potentially deploying troops to Ukraine.
President Putin has warned that such actions would represent a major escalation, and he has threatened to retaliate by providing weapons to Western adversaries elsewhere in the world. To bolster his position, Putin has signed a mutual defense pact with North Korea and left the door open for arms supplies to Pyongyang.
Putin has stated that just as the West says Ukraine can decide how to use Western weapons, Moscow could provide arms to North Korea and "similarly say that we supply something to somebody but have no control over what happens afterward" - an apparent hint at Pyongyang's role as an arms trader.
Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia's Security Council, has noted that Moscow could arm anyone who considers the U.S. and its allies their enemies, "regardless of their political beliefs and international recognition."
Another threat of escalation came after a Ukrainian attack with U.S.-made ATACMS missiles that killed four and injured over 150 in Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. Russia's Defense Ministry has warned it could take unspecified measures against U.S. drones over the Black Sea that are providing intelligence to Ukraine.
The nuclear threat and Putin’s long-game
Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a stern warning about the potential use of nuclear weapons. He stated that it would be wrong for NATO to assume that Russia will not use its nuclear arsenal, and reaffirmed that Russia will use "all means" to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Putin also indicated that Russia is considering possible changes to its nuclear doctrine, which outlines the circumstances under which it would resort to nuclear weapons. To underscore this threat, Russia recently held military drills with tactical nuclear weapons involving Belarus. Last year, Moscow had already deployed some of these weapons to Belarus in an apparent attempt to deter Western military support for Ukraine.
Putin made it clear that a military defeat in Ukraine would deal a "deadly blow" to Russian statehood, and vowed to pursue his goals "to the end." He declared that for the fighting to stop, Ukraine must withdraw its troops from the four regions that Russia annexed in 2022 - an idea that Kyiv and its allies have firmly rejected. Putin also demanded that Ukraine abandon its aspiration to join NATO.
The Russian leader's remarks have drawn criticism from hawkish commentators, who argue that Putin has failed to respond forcefully enough to NATO's increased support for Ukraine. Some have suggested that if Ukraine uses Western-supplied weapons to inflict significant damage deep inside Russia, Moscow should consider targeting NATO assets in retaliation.
However, other Russian analysts have cautioned that such actions could risk triggering a direct conflict with NATO, which would not be in Moscow's interests. Instead, the Kremlin's apparent strategy is to gradually drain Ukraine's resources in the hope of forcing Kyiv to accept a peace deal on Russia's terms.
Comments
Post a Comment